Articles

THE POTUS FRIED TURKEY: TRYING TIMES FOR ILLEBERAL COUNTRIES Turkey is experiencing a fully blown currency crisis and financial meltdown. The Turkish economy has been running a substantial twin deficit, faces accelerating inflation and has ... more

MORE SMOKE THAN FIRE According to speculation reported by Bloomberg, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and the Chinese Vice Premier had private discussions in an attempt to restart stalled trade talks between the two super powers ... more

The US economy expanded by 4.1% in seasonally adjusted annualised terms in 2018 Q2. All core components exhibited expansion, as real consumer spending rose 4%, government spending increased 2.1%, non-residential investments were up 7.3%, exports edged up 9.3%, while imports were flat. ... more

Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated its global macroeconomic assessment and kept the headline aggregate growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 unchanged at 3.9%. Even though the headline global growth rates have not changed, growth projections for several economies have been revised due to the shifts in the balance of risks induced by trade tensions... more

The last decade with abundant liquidity and low commodity prices would have been the ideal period for governments to roll out structural reforms in order to reduce vulnerabilities and build up buffers. However, in aggregate, not much has been done; many countries barely ‘muddled through’ the post-GFC years.... more

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney delivered a rather upbeat view on the UK economy last week. In the Governor’s opinion, the economic softness observed in Q1 was mostly due to adverse weather conditions and economic momentum which picked up in Q2... more

As a tumultuous quarter came to a close last week, it appears many investors were in unwind mode – selling equities and shifting into sectors and regions perceived to be more defensive. As denoted in previous market outlooks, the global cycle is certainly ageing, which should prompt more volatility. However, taking in to consideration President Trump’s harsh trade and foreign policy rhetoric, without it, underlying conditions would likely still be resilient enough to support markets.... more