Articles

Last week saw 3 big central bank meetings, which served to reiterate the varying fortunes of the US, Europe and Japan since the crisis. In the US, the FED raised rates and upgraded forecasts as they predicted - 4 rate hikes for 2018 and a continuation of one of the longest economic cycles in history.... more

Although the main global equity and bond benchmarks were relatively stable last week, this masked a number of large moves in underlying markets. In Brazil and Italy, politics weighed on sentiment, whilst a surprise rate hike in Turkey stemmed recent weakness. Meanwhile, the copper price hit the highest level since 2014 as Chinese imports hit the highest levels since 2000.... more

In a holiday shortened week for the US and UK, a veritable smorgasbord of news flow buffeted markets. From a general sense, two of the most prominent recent headwinds for the market (US rates and the oil price) may now start to cool. With respect to the former, hikes will likely continue this year, but FED rhetoric may turn more dovish as the FOMC digest the effects of their tightening and the ageing cycle. Indeed, slowing but still above trend growth, Europe is likely to see the ECB pause for thought as well.... more

Two weeks ago, the US 10-year bond yield broke decisively through 3% and the oil price (Brent) rose above USD 80. Last week saw an abrupt “about turn”, as dovish Fed minutes continued geopolitical wrangling and speculation of easing OPEC supply restrictions, prompted the largest drop in US yields in over a year and a 7% intra-week decline in the oil price (with further declines yesterday).... more